Friday’s jobs report shifted the Fed debate. The US added just 29,000 jobs in September against forecasts near 90,000, the previous two months were revised down by 60,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson both signalled no rush to move again, and money markets now price less than a 25% chance of an October hike.

Bonds did not get the message. The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest since 2002 last week, capping its biggest quarterly rise since 1994. WSJ analysis argues oil was the spark but heavy government debt is the fuel, which is why France and Italy have fared worst and Japan, with the smallest deficit in the G7, has fared best. Auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries this week are the next test of demand.

Stocks read the same news more kindly. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record on Friday, though the gains lean heavily on AI. The dollar touched its highest level in more than a year on Thursday before the jobs data took some of the shine off, and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will show how firmly the committee was leaning towards more before the numbers turned.

Outside Washington, Brent pushed back above $103 on Monday after Yemen launched an offensive to retake Houthi-held territory. Brazil’s election turned when Flávio Bolsonaro took a surprise lead over Lula in early first-round counts. Governor Ueda speaks on Tuesday, the ECB publishes its meeting accounts on Thursday, mainland China reopens after Golden Week, and Canada’s jobs report closes the week.

Dates shown in UTC. Markets to watch are listed in parentheses.

Monday 5 October

• US ISM services PMI (USDX, NDX100)

Tuesday 6 October

• BoJ Governor Ueda speech (USD/JPY)
• Eurozone retail sales (GER40)
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (WTI)

Wednesday 7 October

• FOMC minutes (USDX, XAU/USD, NDX100)

Thursday 8 October

• ECB meeting accounts (GER40)
• Mainland China reopens after Golden Week (Copper, AUD/USD)

Friday 9 October

• Canadian employment (USD/CAD)
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment (USDX)

The US Dollar Index trades at 101.83, holding most of a rally that carried it to 102.20 on Thursday, its highest in more than a year. The jobs miss cut the odds of an October hike but did not reverse the move, because Treasury yields kept rising even as rate expectations fell.

Wednesday's minutes from the September meeting are the main event. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has argued for at least 50 basis points more in hikes, while Williams and Jefferson are in no hurry, so the minutes will show how wide that split already was. ISM services opens the week, expected at 55.7 from 55.4, and University of Michigan sentiment closes it, with inflation expectations the part that matters.

Price Levels

• Support: 101.60 → 101.00 → 100.25
• Resistance: 102.16 → 103.09 → 103.50

Technical View: The index has broken above the 101.60 to 101.70 ceiling that capped it through July and August, the top of a range that has held since April 2025. The next resistance sits at the April 2025 levels near 103.

Outlook: Bullish bias. The breakout holds while 101.60 does, and hawkish minutes would put 102.16 and 103.09 back in view.

The Nasdaq 100 trades at 30,925 after closing at a record on Friday, with chip stocks leading. Lower odds of a near-term hike helped, and JPMorgan strategists note that US stocks have recently reacted more strongly to falling yields than to rising ones.

The concern is how much now rests on one theme. Citigroup research finds more than two thirds of companies in the Russell 1000 are now linked to AI, and JPMorgan data shows AI-related borrowers make up about 16% of the US investment grade bond market. The new listings market is sending the same signal, with a run of AI-linked IPOs postponed as investors push back on valuations.

Price Levels

Support: 30,750 → 30,200 → 29,800

Resistance: 31,035 → 31,329 → 32,000

Technical View: A bullish flag from late September has broken higher, with a measured target near 31,300. Price is now pressing the upper line of the rising wedge drawn from the late July low.

Outlook: Bullish but stretched. The flag target is close, but the wedge line makes 31,035 to 31,329 a likely place for the rally to pause.

Gold trades at 4,145 after its biggest weekly loss since June. Last week we said the double bottom near 4,260 needed 4,235 to hold. It did not, and the pattern no longer applies.

Friday showed what gold is up against. The jobs miss lifted it to 4,227, but it gave the gain back within hours as the 10 year yield climbed again, so lower hike odds counted for less than the level of real yields. Until the bond selling eases, softer data alone is not enough.

Price Levels

• Support: 4,110 → 4,025 → 3,995
• Resistance: 4,200 → 4,320 → 4,380

Technical View: Gold has made lower highs since the late August peak near 4,690 and is now testing the April low near 4,110. Below it sits the July base between 3,995 and 4,025.

Outlook: Bearish bias. A close below 4,110 opens the July base, while only a recovery through 4,200 would ease the pressure.

Silver trades at 60.71 after falling more than 6% last week, a much steeper drop than gold's. That is typical: silver carries the same sensitivity to yields plus an industrial side that suffers when growth worries rise.

The industrial link is the one difference worth watching this week. Mainland China returns from Golden Week on Thursday, and the restocking that has tightened physical copper could spill over. Until then silver trades as a more leveraged version of gold, and the summer lows near 55 are the only real floor on the chart.

Price Levels

• Support: 59.41 → 57.02 → 54.80
• Resistance: 62.30 → 63.52 → 66.75

Technical View: A head and shoulders top formed over August and September, and the break of its neckline points to about 55.80. A small falling wedge near 60 is the only sign of slowing.

Outlook: Bearish bias. A move back above 62.30 would complete the falling wedge, but below 59.41 the pattern target and the summer lows come into view.

WTI trades at 93.56, pushing higher on Monday after Yemen moved against the Houthis. OPEC+ held quotas steady, so no extra supply is coming from the group, while Europe weighs a release of crude and diesel from its reserves that would add barrels at the margin.

Hormuz remains the anchor. Flows are still constrained, the US Energy Information Administration has assumed the disruption runs through the end of the year, and each failed round of talks has put a floor under prices. A reserve release buys time rather than replacing lost supply, and the EIA's next outlook on Tuesday will update that view.

Price Levels

• Support: 93.22 → 89.30 → 80.40
• Resistance: 96.76 → 100.00 → 107.00

Technical View: The pullback from the September high near 107 has formed a falling wedge, and price is now testing its upper line. The 88 zone, where the August triangle broke out, is the major support below.

Outlook: Constructive. A break above 96.76 confirms the wedge and targets the September high, while a slip below 93.22 returns it to the 89 area.

Bitcoin trades at 86,545, pushing back toward its 87,400 high after closing the third quarter up more than 40%, its best third quarter since 2017.

The rally has come with less leverage than usual. Open interest across futures and perpetual swaps fell sharply last week as traders took profit, without a matching drop in price, which leaves fewer forced sellers if it dips. Inflows to spot funds have been modest, so the next leg needs fresh demand rather than leverage.

Price Levels

• Support: 85,240 → 82,540 → 80,600
• Resistance: 87,430 → 88,000 → 90,500

Technical View: The chart marks a potential double top at 87,400, with the neckline at 82,540 and a measured target near 77,500. After September's early call, this one only counts once the neckline breaks.

Outlook: Two sided. A close above 87,430 voids the double top and opens 90,500, while a break of 82,540 would activate it.

USD/JPY trades at 157.66. Our bearish call last week did not follow through: the pair dipped to 156.38 on Wednesday and recovered, as the rate gap with a 10 year Treasury above 5.2% kept buyers coming back.

Tokyo inflation strengthened the case for the Bank of Japan, with prices excluding fresh food and energy rising 3% in September from 2% in August. Governor Ueda speaks on Tuesday, and a firm signal toward the 29 to 30 October meeting is the most likely thing to break the deadlock.

Price Levels

• Support: 156.68 → 154.67 → 152.88
• Resistance: 158.00 → 159.05 → 160.40

Technical View: Price is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle between roughly 156.40 and 159, with the September rising wedge target near 154.70 still unmet. A break of either line sets the next leg.

Outlook: Rangebound. A hawkish Ueda favours a break toward 154.67, while a firmer dollar on the minutes would put 159.05 in play.

The Australian dollar trades at 0.6953 after the RBA hiked to 4.60% last Tuesday and the currency fell through 0.7000 anyway. Governor Bullock left the door open to more, but monthly inflation came in line with expectations the next day, and markets now give a November hike only about a one in five chance.

That leaves the Aussie with less support from rates than it had a week ago, while falling house prices and a 6.1% drop in August building approvals argue for the RBA to wait. Australia is on holiday Monday, and China's reopening on Thursday is the next outside driver.

Price Levels

• Support: 0.6922 → 0.6905 → 0.6864
• Resistance: 0.6977 → 0.7020 → 0.7040

Technical View: The rising wedge target near 0.6960 from earlier issues has been met, and a bearish pennant has since broken below 0.7000 with a measured target near 0.6870. Friday's bounce has so far stalled under 0.6977.

Outlook: Bearish bias. The pennant target stays open while price holds below 0.7020, and a close back above it would signal the selling is done.

The DAX trades at 25,268, back above 25,161 after a brief break lower last week. Europe's equity story is being set by its bond market, where a selloff has revived memories of the region's debt crisis 15 years ago.

Germany sits on the better side of that divide, with yields rising far less than in France or Italy last quarter thanks to lower debt. Even so, Bank of America says derivatives flows have leaned bearish in Europe, and UBS strategists have pitched hedges against French election risk. The ECB's accounts on Thursday will show how much further tightening policymakers had in mind.

Price Levels

• Support: 25,161 → 24,760 → 24,600
• Resistance: 25,370 → 25,640 → 25,915

Technical View: The index has made lower highs since the late August peak near 26,600, and last week's dip briefly broke the 25,160 shelf before recovering. A bear wick near 25,370 marks the first test overhead.

Outlook: Cautious. Holding 25,161 keeps the range intact, but the trend stays lower until price clears 25,640.

Copper trades at 6.49, in the middle of the range it has held since August. Physical demand in China has been the support, with Shanghai inventories at their lowest since December 2023 as fabricators restocked ahead of the National Day holiday.

Investors are less convinced. Speculative bullish positions have fallen for six straight weeks even as prices rose, which suggests the gains rest on physical buying rather than conviction. China's reopening on Thursday shows whether that restocking continues once the holiday ends.

Price Levels

• Support: 6.4495 → 6.3800 → 6.2312
• Resistance: 6.5223 → 6.6426 → 6.7742

Technical View: Copper has traded in a rectangle between about 6.22 and 6.82 since August, with three failed tests of the top. A break below 6.22 would target 5.60.

Outlook: Rangebound. The triple top caps the upside near 6.80, while 6.2312 is the line that turns the range into a breakdown.

USD/CAD trades at 1.4251, back at the July peak we flagged last week as the obvious place for profit taking. The pair has now gained more than 3% since early September, with US import bans on Canadian goods in force since last Tuesday.

Friday's jobs report is the Canadian test, with unemployment expected to rise to 6.5% from 6.4%. Higher oil should help the loonie, and Canada's lower debt has spared its bonds the worst of the global selloff, but neither has stopped the slide while trade and the US dollar dominate.

Price Levels

• Support: 1.4200 → 1.4140 → 1.4000
• Resistance: 1.4263 → 1.4300 → 1.4400

Technical View: Price sits at the top of a rectangle that has framed the pair since May, forming a potential double top against the July high. A rejection here targets 1.4150, while a close above 1.4263 would break the range.

Outlook: Stretched. The range top has held once already, and a weak Canadian jobs print is the main risk of a breakout.

Friday's jobs report was a big miss. The US added just twenty nine thousand jobs in September, far fewer than expected. Markets quickly cut the odds of another Fed hike this month. The bond market didn't follow. The ten year Treasury yield still hit its highest level since two thousand and two, as heavy government debt keeps investors cautious.

Stocks saw the good side. The Nasdaq closed at a record on Friday, led by tech. Gold saw the other side. Higher yields weighed on it, and it had its worst week since June. Silver fell more than six percent. Oil is rising again. Yemen has launched an offensive against the Houthis, and Brent is back above one hundred and three dollars.

This week is lighter, but not empty. The Bank of Japan's governor speaks Tuesday, after Tokyo inflation picked up. Fed minutes lands Wednesday, will show how many officials want hikes. Treasury auctions will test demand for longer bonds. China returns from holiday Thursday, and Canada's jobs report closes the week.

Stay sharp and see you all next week.